A new Forrester report forecasts combined e-commerce revenue in Brazil, Argentina and Mexico will increase from $20 billion in 2013 to $47 billion in 2018.
Madeline C. Andre
E-commerce revenue in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico are forecasted to grow by 135% collectively, from $20 billion to $47 billion by 2018, according to a new report by Forrester Research Inc. entitled “Latin America Online Retail Forecast 2013 to 2018.”
Brazil remains the largest market in the region by a wide margin, and will remain so, according to the report. Forrester forecasts that overall business-to-consumer and consumer-to-consumer online retail revenue in Brazil will grow from $15 billion in 2013 to $35 billion by 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 18.5%. The company also forecasts the number of online buyers will increase 79.3% from 30.9 million to 55.4 million during the same time period.
The second largest market in the study, Argentina, is forecasted to grow 161.5% from $2.6 billion in 2013 to $6.8 billion in 2018, and the final market, Mexico, is forecasted to grow 150% from $2.2 billion to $5.5 billion, according to the study.
Opportunities exist in those online retail markets today due to the young population there, the report says. Young, digitally savvy consumers help drive e-commerce markets and all three countries have a young average population. In Argentina the average age of the population is 31, in Brazil it’s 30 and Mexico has the youngest average age of 28, says Forrester.
More e-commerce opportunities exist in Mexico and Argentina among lower and middle-class consumers, the report says. Online buyers in Brazil come from all social classes, but in Mexico, e-commerce is more heavily concentrated within middle and upper-middle class buyers. In Brazil, almost half of low-income online customers have bought and paid for a purchase online in the past three months, compared with just 20% in Mexico.
The report also says that the number of online buyers in Mexico will increase 114% from 8.4 million in 2013 to 18.0 million in 2018. This will surpass Argentina’s forecasted increase of 60% in buyers from 7.5 million to 12.0 million in 2018. Though Mexico will have more online buyers, the revenue will not surpass Argentina’s due to lower spending per online buyer, the report says.
Forrester Research made these predictions after conducting an online survey in May 2013 of 5,994 individuals aged 16 years to 75 years in top metropolitan areas and provinces of Argentina and top metropolitan areas and states of Brazil and Mexico, combined with analyzing public financial documents, executive interviews, other studies by Forrester and analysis of the Internet traffic database.