February 10, 2011, 4:36 PM

A rosy outlook from eBay

The company expects marketplace revenue will grow at least 10% annually.

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EBay Inc. says it expects to increase revenue by 10% to 14% annually through 2013, which translates into annual revenue of $13 billion to $15 billion, Bob Swan, chief financial officer of eBay, said today during the online marketplace’s meeting with investment analysts in California.

To reach these goals, the online marketplace expects to double its PayPal revenue by 2013, taking a business that provided approximately $2 billion in revenue in 2010 to $6 billion to $7 billion by 2013. Marketplaces, eBay’s core selling platform, generated $5.7 billion in revenue in 2010; the company projects that to grow to $7 billion to $8 billion by 2013.

If it achieves this growth, PayPal revenue will rival that of eBay’s Marketplace business. EBay expects fixed-price sales in the marketplace to grow “in the low double-digits for the next few years” Swan says. He did not assign a specific growth rate to the fixed-price business, through which consumers can buy products at set prices instead of bidding through auction. He says the company expects growth in the auction and auto categories to be flat.

The company says it is aggressively pursuing innovations and opportunities. “We see a crystal ball full of opportunities,” Swan says. “The role innovation is playing across our business is accelerating.”

Swan says PayPal will expand its focus on digital wallet services and pursue low-cost processing tools and risk analytics technology to drive down fraud rates. EBay is also bullish on the opportunity from the mobile channel. The company projects total sales volume for mobile will reach $2 billion this year, up from $750 million in 2010. The company says it expects the gross merchandise value of PayPal transactions to reach $40 billion by 2013.

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