On the eve of the all-important Thanksgiving holiday weekend, nervous e-retailers can draw some comfort from two reports on actual online holiday sales to date and from two new consumer intention surveys.
In terms of actual sales, comScore Inc. says online U.S. retail sales totaled $7.04 billion from Nov. 1-18, up 17% from $6.01 billion in the same period last year. The web measurement company also has issued a projection of 20% growth in online retail sales for November and December, to $29.5 billion from $24.6 billion in 2006.
“The online holiday shopping season got off to a slow start in the first week of November, but it has since picked up sharply,” says comScore chairman Gian Fulgoni. “Sales in the first 10 days of November were up modestly versus a year ago, but surged to levels in excess of 20% by mid-November.” He says warmer-than-usual weather may have kept consumers away from their computers early in the month, and says the second and third weeks of November are likely to be more indicative of how the holiday season will turn out.
Meanwhile, Hitwise says its index of the top 100 e-retailing sites, the Hitwise U.S. Retail Index, was up 12% over last year for the week ended Nov. 17. Sales at those 100 e-commerce sites grew 7% over the previous week.
Two consumer surveys agreed that about two in five U.S. adults will shop online this holiday season.
A telephone poll of 1,009 consumers in early November by Consumer Reports found 42% of adults plan to shop on the web, up from 40% who said they did so last year. 41% of women said they planned to shop online this year, versus 37% who did so last year, while usage among men was flat. Convenience was the most important reason for shopping online, cited by 48%, followed by avoiding crowds (17%), better selection (12%) and better prices (11%).
The Conference Board says its survey, conducted for it by TNS, found 38% of adults will shop online, the same percentage as last year. The most favored item for online shopping was books (40%), followed by apparel and footware (39%). Among those who say they shop online, 91% say they are satisfied with the experience. The survey of 5,000 households found the average family plans to spend $471 on holiday gifts this year, up nearly 5% from $449 last year.
In addition to its index of 100 e-commerce sites, Hitwise has been tracking traffic to so-called Black Friday advertising sites that reveal the specials retailers plan to offer on the day after Thanksgiving. Traffic to those sites was up 145% in the week ended Nov. 17, compared with the same week a year ago. 61% of visitors to those sites were women in the four weeks leading to Nov. 17, and consumers aged 25-34 were most likely to check out those sites, accounting for 37% of visits.
“Retailers should monitor the Black Friday web sites to see which promotions are driving discussion and excitement among shoppers to make sure that they have those product prominently placed on their web sites and in stores,” says Heather Dougherty, director of research at Hitwise. Hitwise also reported that the top product search terms last week were ipod, wii and Nintendo wii (a video game console), and uggs (a brand of boots.)
Amazon.com, Walmart.com and Target.com again topped the list of retail web sites visited during the week ended Nov. 17. CircuitCity.com showed the strongest growth, with visits up 24% from the week before. Here are the top 10 sites in terms of visits, with market share of all visits to the 100 top e-commerce sites, and percentage change in visits from the previous week:
- Amazon.com, 11.08%, -4%
- Walmart, 7.20%, 7%
- Target, 4.86%, 5%
- Half.com, 4.03%, -6%
- Yahoo Shopping, 3.50%, 10%
- Best Buy, 2.91%, 13%
- JC Penney, 2.48%, 3%
- Overstock.com, 2.39%, 3%
- BizRate, 2.36%, 4%
- Circuit City, 2.34%, 24%
Hitwise, a subsidiary of Experian, collects data from 25 million online users through arrangements with Internet service providers. ComScore data comes from a panel of 2 million consumers who have agreed to have their online usage monitored and who also take part in surveys.
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