PC sales will take off again in 2003 and 2004, IDC says
Worldwide PC sales are poised for a significant recovery next year and the year after, which, in turn, could boost the number of consumers with Internet access and high-speed Internet access, according to IDC`s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker report. IDC is forecasting 8% growth in PC shipments in 2003 and 11% in 2004. For this year, IDC expects growth of 1.6% from last year, although shipments will still be 2.6% below their peak year of 2000. Buying will come in 2003 from the public sector and consumers, IDC says. Total shipments in 2002 are expected to reach 136.2 million.
"We continue to expect slow worldwide PC shipment growth for the next several quarters, before the market accelerates in the latter half of 2003," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC`s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "While business spending has been slow to recover, we believe it will pick up in the first half of 2003, and market drivers like portable adoption, wireless networking, broadband adoption, new designs, media convergence, and total cost of ownership improvements will support moderate growth."
Researchers were encouraged by the strong start to holiday shopping. "The enthusiasm apparent in U.S. retail over the Thanksgiving holiday is a welcome confirmation of improvement in the home segment," said Roger Kay, director of Client Computing at IDC. "Although consumer shipments continue to be down substantially from their peak, the market has resumed a seasonal pattern and reflects growing demand despite mixed consumer indicators. Although U.S. enterprises remain on the sidelines for the time being, we expect business to lead market growth in the second half of 2003."
Specifically for sales in the U.S., IDC said: “Although third quarter results were boosted by government security spending and early Thanksgiving indications suggest improved consumer spending, we remain cautious that security concerns and war in Iraq may depress business and consumer spending. Government spending is also likely to decline as state and local governments face shrinking budgets in an off-election year.”
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