Worldwide PC sales will drop 10% this year, says new research from IDC

Framingham, MA-based IDC has lowered its estimates of PC sales this year. IDC says it expects consumer PC shipments to decline 9.6% worldwide in 2001 versus a previous forecast of a 0.2% decline. IDC said falling consumer PC shipments in the United States and Japan were a major factor in the adjustment. U.S. consumer PC shipments were down 17% in the second quarter from the first quarter and down 21.8% from last year’s second quarter, IDC says. In Japan, the consumer market was expected to slow from near 50% growth in 2000 but moved into negative territory in Q2 with a year-on-year decline of 10.2%.

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With economic worries growing in the United States and abroad, IDC believes it’s unlikely the consumer PC market will improve much in the second half of 2001 even with the release of Windows XP. “For most consumers, a new PC is a very large discretionary purchase,” said Roger Kay, director of Client Computing at IDC. “And that’s for new users. When it comes to replacing a system that probably meets a user’s basic needs, it’s an extremely tough sell in these economic times.” Consumer PC shipments in the United States are expected to decline 25% in 2001 while, internationally, IDC projects flat consumer shipment growth for 2001, down from 39% growth in 2000.

Commercial PC shipment growth is also declining. IDC predicts the U.S. commercial segment will contract by 5.2% in 2001, down from 6.1% growth in 2000. Worldwide, commercial PC shipment growth is projected to fall from 10.5% in 2000 to 3.2% in 2001. “With a large base of fairly powerful computers installed and a relative lack of processor-hungry applications, many businesses are postponing PC upgrades and new purchases,” said Loren Loverde, director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. “Both business and consumer buyers are simply finding other priorities right now.”

IDC predicts the consumer PC market will begin to pick up outside the United States by mid to late 2002 as Windows XP gains momentum. Depending on the strength of the economy, the U.S. consumer market will pick up again around 2003. Commercial shipments are also expected to pick up in all major regions by the end of 2002, as older systems are phased out and businesses look to upgrading their OS platform in greater numbers.