Good or bad? Two researchers predict both for holiday sales
Which will it be? Retailers gearing up for Christmas shopping might have a hard time figuring out whether it will be a great year or not if they rely on the results of two surveys just out about shopping intentions. On the one hand, the Conference Board predicts a slight decline in gift purchasing. On the other hand, Standard & Poor’s says it’s going to be good year.
U.S. households will spend an average of $449 on gifts during the holiday season, down moderately from last year’s estimate of $466, The Conference Board reports. It bases its projection on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households, which was conducted for The Conference Board in November by TNS, the world’s largest custom research company.
At Standard and Poor’s Rating Service, optimism is the watchword. "Since the summer, we have seen a nice increase in consumer confidence, despite occasional bumps. Combined with lower energy prices in recent months, that should translate into solid sales performance for retailers this holiday shopping season," said Standard & Poor`s credit analyst William Wetreich. “Consumers have so far continued to spend fairly robustly. As usual, however, the final days of the selling season will be key, along with the increasingly important January sales from the redemption of gift cards."
Standard & Poor`s says holiday sales of general merchandise, apparel, furniture, and other goods will increase 5% over last year to $250 billion.
The Conference Board has a different view of holiday shopping results. Says Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “While it appears consumers have a little less Christmas cheer heading into Thanksgiving this year than last year, it may very well be that their more frugal budget is merely an anticipation of a holiday season filled with bargains, discounts, a little midnight madness and a desire to spend wisely.”
When it comes to online buying, slightly more consumers will shop online this year than last, the Conference Board says. 35% of all consumers will buy holiday gifts on the Internet, up from 33% a year ago. Books are the most popular item for online buying, cited by 40% of respondents, followed by toys/games at 37%, then apparel & footwear, music videos & DVDs. Of the 33% who said they purchased holiday gifts last year on the Internet, 95% said they were satisfied with their online buying experience.
Other key findings in The Conference Board survey:
• Households headed by individuals 55-64 intend to spend the most this year, with $508 the average expenditure.
• Households headed by those aged 35-44 represent the second largest spending group. For them, average expenditures are expected to reach $478.
• Households whose incomes top $50,000 intend to spend $631 for holiday gifts.
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