Holiday online spending will hit $17.77 billion, eMarketer predicts

Another researcher has weighed in with fourth quarter predictions of online consumer retail spending. New York-based eMarketer Inc. predicts $17.77 billion in Q4 retail spending, not far different from the $18.35 billion that BizRate.com Inc. predicted a week ago. EMarketer’s number is 29.1% higher than Q4 2002’s $13.77 billion.

"Consumers remain cautious, but they`re moving more of their spending online," says eMarketer senior analyst Ross Rubin. Rubin adds that US online retail sales accounted for only 1.5% of total retail sales in the second quarter of 2003, up from 1.2% in Q2 2003, according to the US Department of Commerce.

EMarketer bases its figures on the Commerce Department survey of 11,000 retail businesses.

EMarketer’s Retail Industry Online report also predicts:
• US online retail sales (not including travel) will reach $55 billion in 2003, rising to $72.6 billion in 2004;
• 81.2 million Americans will buy online in 2003, rising to 86.5 million in 2004.