The worldwide PC market is making a strong recovery this year, which will end up the best year for PC sales--units, at least--since 2000, researchers IDC reports,
Worldwide shipments have taken off this quarter and will continue their ascent through next year, says the latest measure of the PC market from IDC. Drivers of that growth will be strong consumer demand, aggressive pricing and rapid adoption of portable PCs, IDC predicts.
"Following a surge in demand during the third quarter, and supported by an improving economic environment, we expect significant growth in the fourth quarter," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "Consumers remain the primary market driver, and while business purchases have yet to accelerate substantially, overall growth shows the market in mid recovery. We expect greater business participation and continued double-digit growth during 2004."
IDC projects growth in sales of PCs in Q4 of 15.3%, which will push the year’s total growth to 11.4%. Manufacturers will ship 152 million PCs, with a value of $175 billion. Shipments will be 8.8% higher than 2000, the previous highest year, while total value will decline 22%. Next year, shipments will grow 11.4% while value will grow 4%, IDC projects.
In the U.S., consumers will buy 20.3 million PCs this year and 22 million next year, while businesses and government will buy 32.7 million units this year and 37.5 million next. After big declines in 2001 from 2000--19.6% in consumer purchases and 6.6% in commercial purchases--PC sales in 2000 had a mixed recovery, up 9.8% in consumer purchases with no growth in commercial. This year, however, consumer purchases will grow 18.8% over last year and commercial purchases, 7%, with growth of 8.6% and 14.8%, respectively, next year.
On top of PC sales, IDC is predicting a “tech resurrection” next year, with IT spending levels returning to solid growth. The spending will not reflect the trends of the last 30 years, however, IDC says, as standards-based computing becomes predominant.
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