Annual worldwide EC growth will reach 70% for 5 years, says IDC
Internet-based commerce will grow nearly 15-fold to $5 trillion by the end of 2005, says a new report from researchers IDC. According to IDC, nearly 1 billion people, about 15% of the world`s population, will be using the Internet by 2005. Their use will fuel more than $5 trillion in Internet commerce, 70% compound annual growth rate from Internet spending of $354 billion in 2000.
"With the dot-com stock crash and U.S. economic doldrums so much in the news, it`s easy to lose sight of the explosive growth in Internet usage and commerce taking place below the surface," said John Gantz, IDC`s chief research officer. "More than 100 million new users come onto the web every year, and corporate volume purchasing over the web is just getting cranked up. Add to that the proliferation of mobile phones and other Internet access devices that will allow people to access the Internet anytime, anywhere, and you have a scenario for explosive growth."
According to IDC, Internet use will be widespread. In 2000, the United States accounted for 34% of Internet users, with Europe at 29%, Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) at 16%, Japan at 10%, and the rest of world at 11%. However, growth in Internet use in Asia/Pacific and the rest of the world--especially in Latin American countries--will quickly outpace growth in more developed countries such as the United States, Canada, and major European nations, IDC says. By 2005, the balance of Internet users will completely shift, with Asia/Pacific rivaling Europe for the most Internet users while the United States slips to third place.
Today, the United States accounts for just under half (46%) of total e-commerce. By 2005, however, its share will dip to 36%. "The U.S. share in 2005 is actually more in line with its position in the offline economy, representing the shift in e-commerce from an emerging market to a more mainstream industry," said Carol Glasheen, vice president of IDC`s Global Market Models and Demand-Side Research program. Growth in e-commerce in all regions will be healthy, but Asia/Pacific and Western Europe will grow the fastest between 2000 and 2005.
IDC’s projections are based on its recently published report The Global Market Forecast for Internet Usage and Commerce.
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